Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Tri Nations, Autumn Nations + other 16-23 Nov

Cracking weekend. Couple of early shouts for me:

Bristol Bears to finish top 4 at 15/20.

Australia -4.5 at 8/10

Very excited for the return of the premiership: I'll post my handicap predictions as follows:

Quins +4.5 vs Chiefs
Sale -8.5 vs Saints
Bath -13.5 vs Newcastle
Warriors - 5.5 vs London Irish
Leicester +3.5 vs Gloucester
Wasps -3.5 vs Bristol

Happy Monday gentlemen, solid week end for me thanks to MITRE but also a very lucking one with Wellington, BOP and Canterbury that were all 3 lost at 90% at some point... anyway a bit of luck is also welcome from time to time. Here we go again, handicap for semis are out:

Otago (-10.5) - Northland
Auckland (-8.5) Waikato
HB (-8,5) Taranaki
Tasman (-11.5) BOP

Handicaps relatively well set and as we are dealing with PO matches I will probably parlay some ML instead. Will see with cold head.

The Gallagher is back and I cannot wait to punt as this has been my favourite tournament for ages now.
I made a list of all international players and the know injured ones to get us a taste of the team selection coming in case odds are coming out early.
I am not sure yet if some international, especially English, could be released to play with their club this week-end but will try to get the info
If I missed any players, please feel to add it to the list
Have a good week lads!

Bath : Cokanasiga, Watson, Joseph, Dunn, Obano, Ewels, Stuart, Underhill, Faletau.
Bristol : Malins, Sinckler, Earl, Radradra, Sheedy, Lloyd.
Exeter : Salde, Hill, Williams, Gray, SHC, Skinner, Hogg, Francis - Luke Cowan-Dickie and Jack Nowell unavailable due to injury.
Gloucester : Polledri, Varney, May, Thorley, Singleton, Harris, Alemanno, Rees-Zammit - Willi Heinz and Jack Singleton unavailable due to injury.
Harlequins : Marchant, Marler, Lang.
Leicester : Youngs, Ford, Genge, Murimurivalu, Nadolo, Lavanini.
London Irish : Cowan, Tuisue.
Northampton : Furbank, Ludlam, Ribbans, Mitchell, Matevasi, Biggar - Courtney Lawes, Rory Hutchinson, Teimana Harrison, Harry Mallinder and Mikey Haywood are recovering from injuries.
Newcastle : Orlando - Mark Wilson unavailable due to injury.
Sale : Curry - Manu Tuilagi unavailable due to injury.
Wasps : Robson, Umaga, Launchbury, Willis, Rowlands
Worcester : Hill, Lawrence, Du Preez, Weir.

Info on the Scotland vs France game - Ntamack ruled out and replaced by Carbonnel in the squad

bradie82 wrote: Info on the Scotland vs France game - Ntamack ruled out and replaced by Carbonnel in the squad

Not sure if that’s a good news for the Scots, Jalibert-Dupont is probably the most offensive 9-10 pairing you can find in Europe at the moment. I saw that Sexton and Henshaw are also ruled out for Ireland

1st punt down for Premiership season -

Bristol +7 @ evens.

Zebre v Ulster in play
U 58.5pts
Zebre will go after tries now and expect Ulster to take off big players in 2nd half

Buggerall to watch so going with
Zebre over 2.5 tries @ 1000/600

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Cracking weekend. Couple of early shouts for me:

Bristol Bears to finish top 4 at 15/20.

Australia -4.5 at 8/10

Very excited for the return of the premiership: I'll post my handicap predictions as follows:

Quins +4.5 vs Chiefs (+4.5)
Sale -8.5 vs Saints (+11.5)
Bath -13.5 vs Newcastle (-11.5)
Warriors - 5.5 vs London Irish (+0.5)
Leicester +3.5 vs Gloucester (-1.5)
Wasps -3.5 vs Bristol (-7.5)

Adding at the end what bookies have just released in Central Europe.

I am probably going with the Warriors ML but I need to study it further, I think Sale will hammer the Saints by double digits as well. I am tempted by Leicester ML, they got a far better squad this year, I guess Henry will get a nod at 10.

Grim weather in Cardiff: Under 40.5 at 15/20

Worcester Warriors board at 19/20

-5.5 at 19/10

Laraxwell wrote: Zebre v Ulster in play
U 58.5pts
Zebre will go after tries now and expect Ulster to take off big players in 2nd half

Well now Laraxwell - you ain't called that too well

Will try one more in play bet tonight
Cardiff v Treviso Under 1.5 tries First half @6/4 bet 365

CLrugby wrote: Happy Monday gentlemen, solid week end for me thanks to MITRE but also a very lucking one with Wellington, BOP and Canterbury that were all 3 lost at 90% at some point... anyway a bit of luck is also welcome from time to time. Here we go again, handicap for semis are out:

Otago (-10.5) - Northland
Auckland (-8.5) Waikato
HB (-8,5) Taranaki
Tasman (-11.5) BOP

Handicaps relatively well set and as we are dealing with PO matches I will probably parlay some ML instead. Will see with cold head.

Hawke’s Bay -8.5 is a standout for me.

Shazzadude wrote:

CLrugby wrote: Happy Monday gentlemen, solid week end for me thanks to MITRE but also a very lucking one with Wellington, BOP and Canterbury that were all 3 lost at 90% at some point... anyway a bit of luck is also welcome from time to time. Here we go again, handicap for semis are out:

Otago (-10.5) - Northland
Auckland (-8.5) Waikato
HB (-8,5) Taranaki
Tasman (-11.5) BOP

Handicaps relatively well set and as we are dealing with PO matches I will probably parlay some ML instead. Will see with cold head.

Hawke’s Bay -8.5 is a standout for me.

I agree, I was looking at 10+ the only thing I don’t like is rematch + Handicap on a PO match, I will probably cut Stake in half and play the other one in parlay, the ML @1.31 is a strong support. Also they will play with full crowd as free entry announced by their board

Wales v Georgia
Paddy Power had total points up earlier at 54.5, I had a decent go at the under.
Just can't see where points will come from here - Welsh attack is as blunt as a spoon.
Pivac has openly said he'll be making changes to give the whole squad a run out, so it will be a weakened side on this basis.
Weather forecast for Llanelli is wind and rain.
Also like the Georgia +28

On a seperate note its hard to see any of the home favourites failing in the Mitre 10 semis, so I've put all 4 in an acca at 2.84

Warriors on the board @ 2

Australia to win the Rugby Championship @2.20 is a decent odd. They need to win twice at home against the Pumas with a week of rest before both matches

Any reason why Cheetahs H is at 18.5? I was expecting 25-30 so am I missing something here?

CLrugby wrote: Any reason why Cheetahs H is at 18.5? I was expecting 25-30 so am I missing something here?

Where is this CL?

The Vann wrote:

CLrugby wrote: Any reason why Cheetahs H is at 18.5? I was expecting 25-30 so am I missing something here?

Where is this CL?

In my local bookies in Central Europe but this is not answering my question

CLrugby wrote:

The Vann wrote:

CLrugby wrote: Any reason why Cheetahs H is at 18.5? I was expecting 25-30 so am I missing something here?

Where is this CL?

In my local bookies in Central Europe but this is not answering my question

Thanks. Weather forecast is thunder storms and wind but this does not normally affect the points that drastically in Bloem. I don't know of any other reasons.

Harlequins board at 16/10
Harlequins 5.5 at 8/10

If the Argies can retain their intensity, I fancy they can see off the Ozzers on Saturday

I also liked this straight away I saw it.
I would still like to see the teams but as much I am not a fan of Quins team right now, they ended the season well. Given first game of the season (big enough break between matches) this could be a tight game.
I understand Exete's second team are decent but Quins will see this opportunity to get one over them before Exeter get into their stride.

I also liked this straight away I saw it.
I would still like to see the teams but as much I am not a fan of Quins team right now, they ended the season well. Given first game of the season (big enough break between matches) this could be a tight game.
I understand Exete's second team are decent but Quins will see this opportunity to get one over them before Exeter get into their stride.

Sale -11.5 looks good, a shame about the weather though.

Wasps - 8 @ 1.83

www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-...juries-ahead-4713283

Wasps minus a cracker! Superb work from Bradie there.

Bears without Sinckler, Thacker, Attwood, Lahiff, Earl, Hughes, Luatua, Sheedy, Radradra, Morahan, Malins, Lloyd, Uren, Piutau.

Bears B side got smashed 59-35 by Wasps and 40-7 by Sale

Following TOS and Bradie; Wasps -6.5 at 9/10 @ WSB

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Wasps minus a cracker! Superb work from Bradie there.

Bears without Sinckler, Thacker, Attwood, Lahiff, Earl, Hughes, Luatua, Sheedy, Radradra, Morahan, Malins, Lloyd, Uren, Piutau.

Bears B side got smashed 59-35 by Wasps and 40-7 by Sale

Thanks B and TOS. Managed to get -7.5 @ evens and jumped on it.

Lovely spot!
Bradie you are GOLDEN!!!

wow good spot lads managed to cancel out my early bet on Bristol on Wasps -7. Smallish bet but good to get out off that news.

Wales - Georgia Under 54.5 for me, game is played at Parc y Scarlets in the lovely city of Llanelli early evening. It is pouring down like hell there with a lot of wind and knowing the pitch it can quickly turn into a water party. With rotated Welsh squad expected and a Georgian team that struggle to score more than 10 points, I don't expect more points than during England Georgia. I was expecting 42.5 max with the weather conditions.

Injury / Squad update on Worcester Warriors

Lawrence, Du Preez, Weir on International duty, Hill may be released by Jones from England.

Kitchener, Holsey, Moulds, Cox Williams out

Sammy Lewis (dead leg on last friendly), Conor Carey, Tommy Howe, Perry Humphreys (all three back on training) 90% out

Butler and Beck available and clear from injury

CLrugby wrote: Wales - Georgia Under 54.5 for me, game is played at Parc y Scarlets in the lovely city of Llanelli early evening. It is pouring down like hell there with a lot of wind and knowing the pitch it can quickly turn into a water party. With rotated Welsh squad expected and a Georgian team that struggle to score more than 10 points, I don't expect more points than during England Georgia. I was expecting 42.5 max with the weather conditions.

Chris which European bookie offers the under please?

bradie82 wrote:

CLrugby wrote: Wales - Georgia Under 54.5 for me, game is played at Parc y Scarlets in the lovely city of Llanelli early evening. It is pouring down like hell there with a lot of wind and knowing the pitch it can quickly turn into a water party. With rotated Welsh squad expected and a Georgian team that struggle to score more than 10 points, I don't expect more points than during England Georgia. I was expecting 42.5 max with the weather conditions.

Chris which European bookie offers the under please?

Nike.sk (Slovakia) and Synottip.cz (Czech Rep) both with relatively high limits and playable at kiosk as well but you need a local to play them.

New kid on the block MGSportsbetting are offering a whole range of total points markets for Saffas(I don't work for them)
but it good to have these lines .Maybe another book will improve on their U54,5@ 1.84 odds for the Wales game though?

Under 54.5 in Wales vs Georgia at 9/10

Game in Llanellli and weather looking rainy and windy. Wales also playing their B team.

Brazil wrote: New kid on the block MGSportsbetting are offering a whole range of total points markets for Saffas(I don't work for them)
but it good to have these lines .Maybe another book will improve on their U54,5@ 1.84 odds for the Wales game though?

I've just had a look, and there are no points lines on offer on their site.
None of the others in SA that I've looked at either.
Sunbet and Sportingbet usually only put points lines a few hours before the game.

"I've just had a look, and there are no points lines on offer on their site.
None of the others in SA that I've looked at either.
Sunbet and Sportingbet usually only put points lines a few hours before the game. "



mgsportsbetting.co.za/#/prematch/9501/ev...ac-918c-8eb1c7474b1b
also see it on Playabets......better price too!Thing though Playabets might reject your bet because they always go upstairs.

The other plus about MG besides their bonuses is their 10% return on losses.Put that on a roughie like and you're back in business.
Playabets have something similar but becoming very frustrating betting with then esp if it';s live and they send it upstairs.

U54.5 pts would be lovely if available here. Bet365 and other giants are too savvy to go early on pts
Wales are currently -24.5pts so a 54.5pt line does not stack up
Georgia scored Zip v England

Maybe it's time to move to the Czech Republic!

Laraxwell wrote: U54.5 pts would be lovely if available here. Bet365 and other giants are too savvy to go early on pts
Wales are currently -24.5pts so a 54.5pt line does not stack up
Georgia scored Zip v England

Maybe it's time to move to the Czech Republic!

Don't get too excited, bookies in CZ and SK have taken it out this morning (but bets are valid). BTW I can tell you that there are other much more interesting reasons to move to Czech Republic than betting ... Just saying

Teams are out

Harlequins Starting XV:
1. Santiago Garcia Botta (22)
2. Scott Baldwin (18)
3. Wilco Louw (4)
4. Matt Symons (45)
5. Stephan Lewies (20) - Captain
6. Tom Lawday (18)
7. Will Evans (21)
8. Alex Dombrandt (52)
9. Danny Care (283)
10. Marcus Smith (86)
11. Cadan Murley (34)
12. Andre Esterhuizen (6)
13. Luke Northmore (
14. Nathan Earle (30)
15. Mike Brown (334)

Impact Players:
16. Jack Musk (12)
17. Jordan Els (2)
18. Simon Kerrod (28)
19. Glen Young (20)
20. Archie White (30)
21. Jack Stafford (0)
22. Ben Tapuai (29)
23. Tyrone Green (0)

Exeter

15 Facundo Cordero
14 Tom O’Flaherty
13 Ian Whitten
12 Ollie Devoto
11 Olly Woodburn
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Jack Maunder
1 Alec Hepburn
2 Jack Yeandle (capt)
3 Harry Williams
4 Will Witty
5 Don Armand
6 Dave Ewers
7 Jannes Kirsten
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Luke Cowan-Dickie
17 Ben Moon
18 Marcus Street
19 Tom Price
20 Richard Capstick
21 Stu Townsend
22 Harvey Skinner
23 Tom Hendrickson

I was eyeing at Quins +4.5 but a bit less confidence now seeing Chiefs pack and bench stronger than the Quins on rainy conditions.

Betway ( UK site ) had under 54.5 at the beginning of the week, but it has since been removed. I also think they were the first to put up a Cheetahs cap. It's strange, they usually leave it late for rugby stuff.

Exeter Chiefs under 28.5 at 8/10